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AMP Comment - Oct. 6, 2004
American Muslims and Arabs
ready to impact election 2004
By Abdus Sattar Ghazali
With only 26 days left for the November 2 presidential election, the American Muslim organizations failed to make up their mind about their support either to the incumbent Bush or Democratic John Kerry.
However, the American Muslims have already expressed their firm support to the Democratic candidate John Kerry. This is confirmed by five polls conducted in as many months by various groups and institutions about the preferences of American Muslim and Arab voters.
According to a Sept 22 Georgetown University poll, Muslims back John Kerry over the incumbent Bush by a margin of 76 per cent to 7 per cent. The poll was conducted by Zogby International for Georgetown University's Muslims in the American Public Square (Project MAPS).
When the question is expanded to include minor party candidates, Kerry's lead is cut to 68% versus Bush's 7%, with independent candidate Ralph Nader picking up 11%, similar to the 12% he garnered from Muslim voters in 2000. “So pronounced is the movement away from Bush that he fails to capture even those Muslim voters calling themselves politically conservative, where Kerry leads him by a two-to-one margin” the poll said.
The new poll also shows a migration away from the Republican Party by Muslim voters. In 2001, 23% of Muslims identified themselves as Republicans while 40% called themselves Democrats and 28% independents. Now, only 12% call themselves Republicans while 50% of Muslims are Democrats and 31% are independents.
New California Media and Amnesty International in August conducted a joint poll of Americans of Arab, Iranian and Pakistani descent, who number 1.8 million and are concentrated in the ``swing vote'' states. The poll indicates that 73 percent of Arab-Americans and 78 percent of Muslim Americans oppose President Bush on Iraq. On possible voting patterns in November, it was found that 49% of Arab-Americans favor John Kerry, 16% will vote for George W. Bush and 14% favor Ralph Nader. Muslim Americans as a whole indicate a favor for Kerry at 49%, Nader at 10% and have Bush trailing at 9%. However 32% were still undecided.
A July 15 survey of Arab-Americans in key swing states conducted by the Zogby International found the Bush-Cheney ticket winning only 26.5 percent support, with Kerry-Edwards at 51, Nader-Camejo at 11 percent, and 13 percent undecided. Only 9 percent of Arab-Americans say Bush's policies concerning Israel and Palestine are good or excellent.
In June a Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) survey reported that 54 percent of eligible Muslim voters said they would vote for Kerry, while 26 percent favored Nader. A sizable 14 percent of Muslim voters said they are still undecided. (Fifty-five percent of the respondents said they voted for President Bush in the 2000 election.) According to CAIR's survey, 34 percent of respondents said the Democratic Party best represents American Muslim interests, closely followed by the Green Party at 24 percent.
PAK-PAC, an organization of American Pakistanis, has conducted a number of surveys. On Oct. 1, PAK-PAC asked: which of the presidential candidate connected with you today? Who do you think performed better in the debates from your perspective? 87 voted for John Kerry and only 2 percent for George Bush while 12 percent were uncommitted. In another survey PAK-PAC asked: Which of the following has done true work with respect to political education of American Muslims at the grass roots? The choices include: Local mosque, individuals in your community, local ethnic organization, the national American Muslim organizations and the new umbrella organizations and task forces. Community individual got 40 percent votes while national American Muslim organizations 15 percent, local mosques 5 percent and the umbrella organizations got only one percent vote.
These polls top persistent media reports, about Muslim political activism, indicating that most Muslim and Arab voters are not going to vote for Bush despite reservations about Kerry’s stance on the Middle East. The reason for this change of heart since 2000 is widespread civil rights concerns.
American Muslim organizations – such as American Muslim Alliance (AMA), American Muslim Voice (AMV), Council on American-Islamic Affairs (CAIR) and Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) - have been playing an important and significant role in motivating the community to participate fully in the national political process. Voter registration campaigns were launched after the ISNA convention of Sept. 2003 which called for registration of about one million new voter registration. Extensive media coverage about the American Muslim and Arab voting trends and registration campaigns also played a very important role in educating the American Muslims and Arabs as well as the fellow Americans about the significance of their vote.
Now the question is, how relevant will be any formal decision by the American Muslim “leadership” about any presidential candidate preference? The answer is obvious – at best, no relevance at all or negligible impact in view of the consensus building up, as indicated by the five polls.
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